To ask the Minister of Health how direct payments will operate over the period to 30 September 2020, particularly with regard to carers for children who are shielding.

The estimated reproduction number, R published by the Department of Health represents the consensus view of the Northern Ireland Covid-19 modelling group.

This is based on estimates of R produced by a number of UK modelling groups using a range of different models, in addition to an NI developed model. The NI model derives R using an extended SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) compartmental model and based on the mathematical relationship between the value of R and the growth rate of an indicator of infection. The model currently uses the number of Covid-19 positive hospital in-patients and admissions, and the main assumption is that an individual with Covid-19 is infectious for 6 days. This assumption is based on extensive published data relating to the natural history of the period of infectiousness.

The value of R as an indicator of the trajectory of the virus remains below one as the incidence of Covid-19 in Northern Ireland continues to fall. This means that greater reliance is now being placed on other indicators such as the number of new positive cases.